Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Crystal Balderdash

obama, obama jokes, political, humor, cartoon, conservative, hope n' change, hope and change, stilton jarlsberg, super tuesday, fortune teller, crystal ball

Although foretelling the future isn't necessarily our specialty here at Hope n' Change, we've done a remarkable job of accurately predicting where Obama's policies would lead over the past seven years - albeit while making an effort to use the word "Hell" as infrequently as possible.

In any event, even though the results of the Super Tuesday polling aren't in yet at the time of this writing, we're going to indulge ourselves in a bit of prognostication. Which, no matter what you've heard, doesn't lead to blindness or hair on your palms.

We think both Hillary and Trump will have done very well. Enough so that each will start seeming to be the inevitable candidates. We think Bernie Sanders will get a sound thrashing owing to an interesting demographic oddity having to do with the youth of his supporters: they love rallies because they feel like attending a party, but loathe standing in lines at the polls to actually vote because it feels like work.  We also think that the overall Democratic turnout will be low because, seriously, who's really excited about voting for Hillary?

We're further predicting no favorable upsets for Cruz or Rubio, and Ben Carson needing a big sympathy hug at the end of the evening.

But now, let's look farther into the future. We'll lower the lights, turn up the creepy violin music, and ask everyone to lower their heads and join hands around the crystal ball to assure that no one can grab our drink while we've got our eyes closed.

Ah, the mists are clearing...

We see...less than a 50/50 chance of Hillary being the Democratic candidate in November owing to legal troubles currently known and yet to be revealed. We see...Bernie Sander's chance of being the nominee as zero, much like the tax rate he proposes for most Americans. Which is why we predict a 55% likelihood of...of... Joe Biden topping the ticket.

We see... Donald Trump running as a third party candidate after he is denied the GOP nomination at an ugly brokered convention. The actual GOP candidate will either be Marco Rubio or, more likely, Mitt Romney - simply because Mitt won't be covered head-to-toe in feces flung by other Republican political opponents during the primaries.

And because of this three party dynamic, we see...we see... a Democrat win for Joe "God love ya, what am I saying?" Biden and Elizabeth "The tepee VP" Warren.

Obviously, we hope we're wrong - but this is what the spirits are telling us. Then again, the only spirits we can afford aren't exactly top shelf brands.


According to the calendar, Andrew Breitbart has now been gone for four years.  But his legacy lives on and remains a huge influence and inspiration for many.

We miss you, Andrew, and need you more than ever. But your work is continuing.


Joseph ET said...

Yeah, this will continue to be an entertaining election. We the people will be screwed once again. They don’t even try to hide it as much as before. “We the elite know what’s best for you and we will do what we want. If you don’t like it, you can go eat cake.”

REM1875 said...

Ok I got the coffee off the monitor and mouse but not sure if the keyboard is gonna make it.

Jim Irre said...

Joseph, cake isn't what they had in mind to serve.

I kind of figured on an ugly brokered convention as well. Trump will be livid and threaten to sue everyone in creation (including God). But, he will, in keeping with past accomplishments, never ever settle out of court.

Geoff King said...

Trump, Clinton, Romney, etc. are all the same. They will say whatever the day's audience wants to hear and flip-flop later.
There is no longer any difference between the two parties, and our country is doomed.

TrickyRicky said...

@Geoff King-I hate to say it, but I am afraid you are correct. It's 5:09 and I'm already late getting to work. But that's OK I'll be home by 7:00 tonight. I'm just glad to be able to help pay for Barry's minions. Hell.

Fred Ciampi said...

Jubilation T. Cornpone. That's who I'm votin' fer. One thing I have determined, and that is that Donald Trump keeps his message the same; wall around Mexico, trade imbalance, strong military, etc., no matter who he is speaking to. The rest, especially Hillary, arrange their speeches to what the particular crowd they are speaking to. When in the south, Hill (as she is known to her friends, both of them) adapts a drawl, when in Chicago .....well, you know the rest. May God Bless America.

Titan Mk6B said...

I have no idea what to make of Oklahoma now. I thought you had to be real stupid to vote for Clinton and even stupider to vote for Sanders. But OK went for Sanders.

Having lived in OK almost all of my life I am somewhat confused.

Friedrich Hayek said...

All right you kool-aid drinkers (those who voted for Trump, Hillary, and/or Bernie). I have had it.

Trump is a Democrat. He is a fascist just like Hillary and Bernie. Why have you not figured this out? The kool-aid ...

If Trump is the nominee, I am through with the Republicans. They can just go to hell (that would be wherever the Democrats are).

I will become a member of the LP, or the Potato Party, and hurl pea soup at every stop. Mark my words.

Trump votes are buffoons. Hillary voters are buffoons. Bernie voters are greedy, selfish bums - and buffoons.

Roger Myers said...

Finally, someone who doesn't think i'm crazy! I have been trumpeting for months the opinion that Biden/Warren is the ticket we have to worry about. By delaying the bombshell that derails the Hildebeast, Obama can spare Biden the potentially damaging primary circus.

Judi King said...

@Titan: OK also went for Cruz, so they can't ALL be stupid.
@Friedrich: Ditto!

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@Joseph ET- I increasingly think of the wisdom in Paul Simon's song "Mrs. Robinson":

Sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon
Going to the candidates’ debate
Laugh about it, shout about it
When you’ve got to choose
Any way you look at it you lose

I'm afraid that's how I'm feeling these days as I watch the dog and pony show. Meanwhile, ever so quietly in the background, Obama's policies keep killing us. We've got a record number of illegals, Obama is reducing the number of border guards (and telling those who still want to enforce the law to look for other jobs), and a recent Judicial Watch FOIA lawsuit revealed that his administration scrubbed the terrorist watch list to remove the names of 800+ Muslims so as not to look discriminatory.

Goo goo gajoob...

@REM1875- We've spoken about drinking while reading this blog, haven't we?

@Jim Irre- I can't help but see Trump as the spoiler who will assure a Democrat in the White House. Unless, of course, he wins - which puts a closet Democrat in the White House.

@Geoff King- I'd prefer not to think that our country is doomed, but is only - for now - completely screwed. Call me a glass half-full kind of guy.

@TrickyRicky- Heading to work at 5 am sounds like one of those jobs that Americans theoretically wouldn't do. I used to have to get up that early to work the breakfast shift as a waiter, and it nearly killed me.

@Fred Ciampi- Trump does tend to keep his message consistent (well, as long as you don't look too far into the past) which I appreciate. My big concern is his credibility - I hear what he's saying, but A) does he mean it and B) can he do it?

@Titan Mk6B- I have to admit that I was left a little slack-jawed by the Oklahoma results. The Left wants Bernie and the Right wants Cruz. How the heck are these people living in the same state?!

@Fredrich Hayek- There was a very good piece in today's Wall Street Journal by Holman Jenkins in which he cites a common thread linking the supporters of Hillary, Bernie, and Trump (and no, he didn't use the word "buffoon" specifically). Rather, he blames our current woes (and the goofy solutions being offered up by these candidates) on a long tradition of voters continuing to cast ballots in favor of free stuff and unfunded entitlements. Combine that with a magical belief that big government can somehow triumph over simple and incontestable math and you get the whole picture: we're screwed because an irresponsible electorate gravitates toward pleasing lies.

@Roger Myers- Not only do I think that Biden/Warren is a likely ticket, I think they'd be unbeatable. Biden would get the full-throated endorsement and support of Obama, allowing him to pick up the base and minority voters. Moreover, after a bruising campaign season a lot of people might like him just because he's not always angry. Warren would pull in Bernie's socialist youth movement, as well as the "vote with your vagina" contingent - plus, in lieu of a salary, she's willing to work for beads.

@Judi King- As I said above, I can't figure out the Cruz/Sanders dynamic in Oklahoma. I'm amazed the voters aren't actually fighting each other in the streets!

Sergio said...

I understand a petite fortune teller has escaped from prison, so now there's a small medium at large!

John the Econ said...

Well if anything, the conventions are going to be interesting come summer. The GOP is going to try anything to be rid of Trump. Promoting Romney as the "adult in the room" has certain appeal, but I just don't know. Trump has previously promised not to run as an independent should he not be the GOP candidate, but we all know what Trump's words are worth.

The Democrat's convention may end up being even more interesting in that by then, Bernie's supporters will be ready for war over the whole "superdelegate" fraud, which is ironically un-democratic. It could be Bernie that bails and runs as an independent, or where he belongs as the honest Socialist Party candidate.

I still think Hillary will be the inevitable Democratic candidate. After all, "she deserves it" and this was probably the back-room promise made in 2008. I have no faith at all that Hillary's "legal problems" are going to go legal before the election. No career prosecutor wants to risk professional purgatory (or worse) for the rest of their careers by charging an "inevitable" President, especially one as ruthless as a Clinton.

And Attorney General Loretta Lynch's assurances do not assure me all that much:

"The probe into her possible mishandling of classified information “is being handled by career independent law enforcement agents—FBI agents—as well as the career independent attorneys in the Department of Justice,” Ms. Lynch said Wednesday. “They follow the evidence, they look at the law and they’ll make a recommendation to me when the time is appropriate,” adding that the probe is being “conducted as every other case.”"

Just like they did with the IRS, GSA, EPA, and other scandals.

Also remember, that the more "inevitable" that Hillary becomes, the more the media will circle the wagons around her just as they did for Bill a quarter century go. Yeah, they know she's a crook just as we do. But there's no question over who they'd prefer in the White House.

In fact, it's already happening. Anyone else amused by this phony dust-up over Trump not being vigourous enough against David Duke? True, Trump was pretty tone-deaf on it. But it's still way out of proportion. Nobody is actually seeking a David Duke endorsement.

Compare that to Hillary, who enthusiastically received the Margaret Sanger award, and "admires" the racist eugenicist. Say what you will about Duke, (who I believe is mostly into it for the money over the ideology) but Hillary is into it for the ideology. Margaret Sanger and her followers have killed off more of the "spawning class" than the KKK could dream of. You decide which is more evil, if it even makes a difference.

KanB said...

With the Democrat thumb on our legal system, Hill's troubles don't legally amount to a hill of beans. She's in like Flint. The Trump circus (complete with an ass clown) remains inscrutable. All hail the new Queen.

Colby Muenster said...

I agree with Roger Myers. O'Liar would LOVE to stick it to the Clintons, and what better way than to let Billary spend huge amounts of energy and money running for Prez, then slam her with a big fat DOJ indictment immediately after she's clinched the nomination? And I'll submit another last minute substitution to y'all. What about Bloomberg? He's already rattling his sabre.

Hey, did anybody see Trumps "My victory was HUGE" speech last night? What the heck was Chris Christie doing back there behind Trump? It looked like he was eyeing the hors d'oeuvres trays as they were being carried through the crowd, or something. Creepy... having him suddenly jump into Trump's camp is also creepy. Is he Trump's choice for VP? If so, Trump is stupider than I imagined.

Boo hisss....

Sortahwitte said...

Judi, Stilt. I live in Oklahoma and haven't a clue. Are all the people stupid all the time?

Bush Pilot said...

The dems are the ones that need to worry about the vote being split..... between Hill and Biden...... if they choose Biden at the last minute Hill will run as an independent. She will not go away without handcuffs.

Rod said...

I like the fortune teller.

The second amendment mentions a militia of armed citizens being necessary for the security of the nation. Simple gun rights be damned... it seems we're drawing ever nearer to the full clause.

Em said...

It is understandable to have a few reservations about supporting Trump. He is clearly not an ordinary candidate. However, I don't understand why some people (including some conservatives) still refuse to take him seriously as a candidate and further, to attack and criticize his supporters. I am a conservative and a Trump supporter. Trump may not be the perfect conservative, but I don't see that as the most important issue right now. I want a candidate very different from what the Republicans came up with in 2008 and 2012--both of which ended in devastating election days. It's time to try something else. Considering the damage inflicted by Obama and liberals in recent years and the repeated betrayls by Republicans I thought were representing me, I think my decision to support Donald Trump is completely justified.

I think this article makes a good point: "Trump: A pragmatist, not a conservative"

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@Sergio- I think you've sized up the situation accurately...

@John the Econ- I think Romney is basically DOA to voters, even if he gets nominated through some kind of shenanigans. There is an anger that needs to be addressed, and Romney is just too taciturn. Plus, his recent insinuation that Trump must be hiding something in his tax returns was a cheap and ugly ploy more worthy of Harry Reid.

Regarding a third party run by Trump, he's only promised not to do so IF the GOP treats him "fairly." In other words, it's no promise at all.

Interesting to think of Bernie making a third party run. I doubt it will happen, but I suppose it isn't impossible.

As far as Hillary goes, I agree that the Justice Department is totally in the bag for her - but I'm not entirely sure that the FBI is willing to keep silent about what they've found for purely political reasons.

@Karen-n-Bill Hart- For the reasons cited above, I still think there's a chance that Hillary may go down. So to speak. But if she doesn't, I'm guessing she's the next president.

@Colby Muenster- I, too, see this as a possibility. I think Barry would like to knock Hillary out of the race, but she may have too much dirt on him to allow it to happen. Personally, I don't think he had ANYthing to do with the raid that hit Bin Laden, and I'm guessing Hillary still has the proof.

And I don't know WHAT the heck is going on with Christie. He's clearly miserable about whatever deal he made with Trump.

@Sortahwitte- My daughter lives in Oklahoma, and Cruz got a nice win, so clearly not ALL the Okies are nuts.

@Bush Pilot- I don't see that happening. Biden won't get in unless Hillary is taken away in handcuffs.

@Rod- I'm not sure we've reached anything like that point yet. But thanks to the 1st and 2nd Amendments, we can at least talk about the possibility hypothetically (Pshew - think the NSA bought that?)

@Em- Good and valid points. In all candor, I often think we do need a real wild card introduced into this dysfunctional system to make real changes while they're still possible. And Trump may be exactly the right guy.

My concern is not simply that he isn't conservative (he demonstrably isn't), but that his style of "pragmatism" may not work on a national level against heavily ingrained political parties. And frankly, his volatility is a concern.

My HOPE is that if Trump becomes president, he'll be a great president and exactly what the country needs. But for now, I need more convincing evidence which will enable me to vote for him rather than simply voting against the Democrat nominee.

John the Econ said...

"As far as Hillary goes, I agree that the Justice Department is totally in the bag for her - but I'm not entirely sure that the FBI is willing to keep silent about what they've found for purely political reasons. "

Doesn't matter. If the AG's office isn't willing to proceed with charges, it really doesn't matter what the FBI thinks. And remember, under the Clinton ethos, anything that can't be fully prosecuted to its ultimate conclusion in a court of law is de-facto ethical.

For an example how the woman's a sociopath, consider this straight-faced response on "lying":

"I don't believe I ever have and I don't believe I ever will."

She'll be at the lowest depths of hell telling people how she's the most ethical person ever to walk the planet.

@Em: I don't take him seriously because he's never done anything that wasn't about promoting his own interests at any given moment. In that respect, the only difference between Trump and Hillary is that Trump has been restrained by the law, whereas Hillary has been immune to it.

If he's a "conservative" today, it's because it's suiting his purposes just as being a Democrat did in the past. He might even been sincere about it too, but we'll never know. All he's done is tap into the disgust with the political establishment monoculture that is today's GOP and Democratic party which through acts are largely indistinguishable from each other.

I'm not as critical of Trump supporters as many others are. I get their rage. I in fact share it. The political establishment, media and leftist elites have certainly laid into the Trump supporters, which has only fueled them. What this has really done is to expose the elite's contempt for the silent majority of this country. This is why nobody can figure out how to deal with Trump, and might in fact lose to him.

I keep telling my Democrat friends that they shouldn't be so smug about all of this. They are as much at fault as the GOP is. And if Trump wins, it will only be because a substantial number of Democrats will vote for him. The Democratic party has abandoned the middle class; largely become the party of the poor and mega-rich. The idle rich get to feel okay about being rich because of the crumbs they're bestowing on the poor, mostly at the expense of the middle class. The middle class has slowly started to figure this out.

If nothing else, Trump is destroying most of the myths held by both parties and may actually heal much of the balkanization that the Democrats have fermented for generations. The astounding support he's getting from minorities and people who are supposed to hate him is astounding.

Boligat said...

I'm thinking that it would most interesting for Trump, should he win the nomination, to get Bernie for his vice-president. They could appeal to a lot of people with the slogan, "They tried to screw us, but now it's our turn." or something like that.

Judi King said...

John the Econ said...

@Stilton, you may be on to something. Just watched Romney give a speech regarding Trump. I'm sure it will be somewhere online shortly. Don't miss it. I'm sure we won't miss Trumps petulant response to it.

Geoff King said...

I understand why some here may hope that Romney jumps into the race. A president who believes in magic underwear is preferable to a sociopathic liar, a socialistic buffoon, or a social narcissist. However, I believe the "vote for the lesser of the two evils" mentality is what has brought our nation to it's knees.
I have already decided that I will vote for "none of the above". Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, gets my vote. He is an honest, decent, hard-working Constitutional man who admittedly has absolutely no chance of winning.
At least I will be able to sleep at night knowing I did not vote for any of the other establishment puppet clones that are hellbent on destroying our country.

Geoff King said...

P.S. This will be the first Presidential Race where the Libertarian candidate will appear on the ballot in all 50 states.
That will matter little since the LP cannot spend billions to buy your vote, but I do consider it great progress.

Rod said...

It looks like the party-pledge deal to treat Trump fairly is off; so he holds more options. They started with well over a dozen solid candidates and are down to 2 or 3 & the current leader could leave, meaning another loss in general election. They'd better start getting smarter AS A GROUP. It's sad that incumbent traitors, best liars & most inept are smarter at all this but that seems to be the case.

Dougie said...

That is a wonderful tribute Mr. Jarlsberg.
Lord I miss Andrew. He was a warrior, a leader.
He and Mr. Trump got that same kind of moxie.
Trump is like a guy running through Hell with an open can of gasoline. And Hell is terrified.
Andrew would have loved the guy.

Boligat said...

Geoff, please lay off the "magic underwear". It is a totally inappropriate and inaccurate reference. As long as the wearers don't flaunt it or throw it in your face, it's nobody's business.