Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Bounce Like a Rubber Check

The mainstream media was beyond delighted to report that Barack Obama got a bounce from the Democratic Convention which would put a ball of Flubber to shame - launching him into the upper stratosphere of the polls while Mitt Romney remained earthbound and choking on Barry's dust.

The only problem? It wasn't true. In order to produce even the illusion of a post-convention bounce (especially after disastrous jobs news the morning after Obama's speech), various alleged news organizations had to conduct polls which significantly oversampled democrats - perhaps because the polls were conducted during business hours and republicans were at work.

A more reliable poll shows the race at a virtual tie - which still suggests that way too many Americans either aren't paying attention or that they are, to put it charitably, drooling self-pleasuring idiots who fart in the bathtub and giggle as they snap at the bubbles.

It is a fact that in the final 8 weeks of this presidential race, we're going to hear a lot of poll numbers which are "untruthful" (to put it mildly) and created only to dispirit the Right. So we're not going to play that game.

Let us, instead, pay attention to some genuinely significant numbers in the run-up to the election. Like the fact that Obama has spent 412 hours in economic meetings, but 600 hours on the golf course. And that in 2011 and 2012, the busy-busy-busy president has skipped his daily national security intelligence briefings almost two-thirds of the time. No wonder Obama thought it was an accomplishment just to vote "present" when he was a community-organizing Senator from Illinois.

But despite our skepticism about the MSM's claim of a nonexistent Obama "bounce," we do think he's going to be getting one soon.

And he'll be bounced right out of the Whitehouse.



Velcro said...

And, in contrast to Tigger, it won't be fun, fun, fun, fun, fun!

The empty chair president has had an administration of nothing but lies, failure and contradiction.

SeaDog said...

First, thank you for the respectful remembrance of 9/11. Gentleman I worked with survived WTC by crawling/wading through the sewers - took him 5 years before he agreed to relate what he remembered to a local TV station, he was the only survivor from his firm. I can't imagine what he went through.

Article on Hot Air had a good explanation of the polling process, and as an old statistician, I agree - what was the question, who was asked, how was it asked...pretty much all the 'unbelievable bounce' polls are conducted by media organizations of 'registered voters' or 'adults' and are biased weighted (I'm shocked). The only legitimate polling at this point in the calendar is 'likely voters', and even then, the only ones I would trust are Rasmussen and Pew Research (and possibly Purple People Strategies). Look at the 'polling' of the WI recall - almost all either had Walker defeated or winning only by a recountable margin.

My personal opinion is that this election will be a surprise to the pollsters - the massive number of Smartphones and Tablets carrying the 24/7 news cycle and the social media (Twitter/Facebook. etc) present a real sampling demographic problem. The 'old' politicians can't seem to really understand the impact that YouTube has on their spin efforts - look at DWS (gag) trying to deny her statements while the screen behind her is showing a YouTube clip of her making the statements, and of course the now famous God/Jerusalem teleprompter shot.

Unfortunately, the majority of the public sees/hears these polls and they don't have the ability/knowledge to dig deeper into the demographics to see how biased they are. With Obama and his campaign spewing lies and dis-information at every turn, they begin to believe. The Dems are liking to label conservatives as 'Nazis', but it was Goebbels that perfected the 'Big Lie' - tell it long enough, loud enough, people will believe.

SeaDog said...

I wonder how 'President Foreign Relations' will handle the US Ambassador and 3 staff being killed in Libya and the attack on the embassy in Egypt. If I remember, that is an act of war. But wait, State has already apologized to the Muslims for putting the ambassador in the way of their bullet.

Philip said...

Polls show Romney soars with independent voters

"The CNN/ORC International poll of registered and likely voters released Tuesday shows likely voters favoring Obama by 52 percent to 46 percent over Romney -- evidence, pundits said, of a post-convention bump for the president.

But a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.

Both Democrats and Republicans believe independents will be critical to deciding the outcome of the election, in part because they make up a growing part of the electorate and are considered up for grabs because they fluctuate in their political preferences from one election to the next.

"That's a significant lead," said pollster Ron Faucheux.

It was the independent vote that helped Obama win the 2008 election. He won 52 percent of independents, compared with 44 percent for McCain. Independents comprised about 33 percent of the overall vote in 2008.

"If Romney can beat Obama among independents this time, he can win the election."

A poll conducted two weeks ago by Democracy Corps showed Romney with a 15-point lead among independents, 53 percent to 38 percent.

Romney also appears to have an advantage over Obama when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

The CNN/ORC International poll showed Republicans leading Democrats among the most enthusiastic voters, 62 percent to 56 percent. The enthusiasm level helps determine which party will show up in greater numbers to vote.

"This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day," Romney campaign pollster Neil Newhouse said in a Monday memo aimed at downplaying reports of an Obama bounce.

The Gallup poll of registered voters "found a bounce" for Obama that appears to have emerged after the convention, said the poll's editor-in-chief, Frank Newport. The poll noted that the 3-point gain for Obama is lower than the typical 5-point boost received by candidates in some past conventions."

Earl Allison said...

Again, it's like the MSM thinks we have no memory.

I know I wasn't the only one to read how badly people thought Obama's speech went, that the magic from 2008 was gone.

So, if that were true (and it was Liberals lamenting Obama's lack of luster, too), how can they then turn around and say he (Obama) got a bounce from HIS convention when they earlier suggest Romney didn't get one from his?

Again, Clint Eastwood's "empty chair" speech, coupled with President Thin-Skin's almost instant picture reply sure sounds like it got a lot of attention.

SeaDog makes a great point. Obama, Wasserman-Schultz, and the like seem to forget, we REMEMBER things, and even if we didn't, YouTube and Twitter and the like are there to remind them that yes, they DID say or do stupid things.

I wonder if Carter is elated today, no longer the worst President, but second-worst thanks to yesterday's events and Obama's silence on them?

Thanks for posting!

Emmentaler Limburger said...

Yes, yes. Watch as they parse the numbers. I don't recall what report or poll it was that I recently reviewed, but statistrickery was abundant. They presented the percentage of groups, each group represented as a percentage of likely voters, divided by various criteria such as women voters, young voters, party affiliations including "independent", etc. When you looked a the percentages as presented, there was an apparent bump for Øbama among a majority of the groups - until you looked at the relative percentage of the groups as related to the likely voter whole. It's funny how, even though they're blatantly lying through their presentation of the numbers that they still feel the need to present the "whole picture" from which you can reconstruct the true story. A case of honor among thieves? Assuming that the survey questions were also designed to drive the answers, as they usually are, I'd say Øbama is in very deep doo-doo if this election is allowed to go forward. I'm still concerned that his puppet masters will not allow their most recent "opportunity" to slip peacefully away, and they've been emboldened by the lack of action in Congress against Øbama's blatant violations of the rule of law vis-a-vis the Constitution. Watch for that "quantitative easing", coming to bankrupt a country near you...

(@Phillip: look at that pollster's name: Faucheux. Pronounced properly in french, his name is the francophone equivalent of the Ebonic phrase "fo sho" - for sure. That's a great name for a statistician... :o)

Philip said...

@Emmentaler Limburger,

You've got it right !

SeaDog said...

I wonder when the WH will release a statement regarding the killing of our Ambassador to Libya and three of his staff? Did the Libyan's and Egyptians present Mr. Hope and Changey with his Carter moment? Was the Marine Force guarding the embassy told to stand down? Yesterday the State Dept was apologizing to the Muslims, Carney tried to spin the statement, and State reconfirmed the original statement. There was a time when this government had a set, when no one dared to attack an embassy, which is US soil in a foreign country, let alone kill an ambassador - a violation of numerous international laws and I believe, an act of war.

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@Velcro- Obama may not enjoy the bounce out the door, but the rest of us will.

@SeaDog- Damningly, Rasmussen recently released poll results showing Romney leading Obama, which outraged David Axelrod. Seemingly as a direct result, the Department of Justice opened an investigation into Rasmussen. Talk about intimidation and abuse of power.

And regarding the news coming out of Libya and Egypt, I'm appalled. Yesterday, Barack Hussein Obama said that the 9/11 attacks made America stronger - an offensive and empty platitude with which I vehemently disagree. And on that same day, our embassy in Egypt is attacked and we apologize for being offensive to Muslims... our Libyan ambassador and 3 others are murdered in the streets of Libya... and Obama refused to meet with Bibi Netanyahu (with an Iranian war brewing) because the president prefers to appear on Dave Letterman's show.

Obama needs to change his theme from "Hope" to "Hell in a Handbasket."

@Philip- Interesting stuff. Personally, I'm taking Rush's advice and just ignoring ALL polls, good or bad, until a couple of weeks before the election. As Rush points out, those are the polls that people will look at to judge a pollster's accuracy after the election, so those are the polls that the pollsters will try to make accurate.

@Earl Allison- I think the operative phrase in your comment is WE remember things. But a lot of Obama supporters don't remember, or never knew. As you point out, all of the factual anti-Obama material anyone could ever need is readily available online, but people rarely seek out information which will prove that they've been fools.

@Emmentaler- I love the label "statistricks" for what we're seeing out there in the media. And as you suggest, we can even be heartened by "bad" poll results when we realize that the methodologies are so wildly spun that the real figures must look bad for Obama.

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@SeaDog- The attacks yesterday cannot go unanswered. The world will be watching today to see what Obama does or doesn't do.

Pete(Detroit) said...

Stilt, unfortunately, the odds of the Wussy In Chief doing ANY thing, even bombing an aspirin factory, are somewhere b/n nil and squat...

Emmentaller - "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure" - never were these more true.

John the Econ said...

The polls, beyond their meaning to the media as a mechanism to spin are mostly irrelevant. The unfortunate reality comes down to this: Which group of "likely voters" is going to show up in greater numbers? Those who sign checks with the government on the front, or those who sign those checks on the back? Obama has done all within his power to increase the number of the latter.

As far as yesterday's events in Libya, as far as Obama is concerned they were just collateral damage in an insignificant theater. Expect it to be out of the news cycle by prime-time tonight. November is the sole focus now.

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@Pete(Detroit)- I'll be shocked if Obama does anything at all. Although Romney is going to speak out about it, which might force Barry to do something other than apologize to Islam for our nation being so offensive.

Pete(Detroit) said...

Hilliary giving tribute to the dead. Nice. Probably the sum total extent of things.

txGreg said...

Great discussion on the poll numbers already. I'll apologize for veering off on a tangent here, but I just happened to read another article about numbers that I found interesting.

Remember a short (just one President back) while ago when the media was determined to count every single U.S. death from Afghanistan and Iraq (preferably with a shot of the coffin alongside? Ever wonder why that "critical news" fell by the wayside? (Breitbart)

Apparently, it became "no longer important" once the numbers took a big upswing under President HopenChange.

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@Pete(Detroit)- I just saw that Obama is sending some Marines to Libya. But personally, I don't think he's doing it because of the brutal murders of our embassy staff - I think he's doing it because Romney has called him out on it.

@txGreg- MAN, are you hitting one of my hot buttons! When Bush was in office, the press took an "every swallow that falls" approach to making sure we knew that every death of an American in uniform was a tragedy, and threshholds of deaths were widely trumpeted. But now that Obama is in office, our troops are treated as nameless cannon-fodder...their deaths largely unreported because a little of their blood might get splashed on the media's beloved Commander-in-Chief.

I'd say more, but I'm about to slip into serious Tourette's mode.

txGreg said...


On a lighter note then, let me help get that blood pressure back down. It's time to retire the "Wookie" nickname... it's obviously an insult to the female Wookie dancers everywhere.

SeaDog said...

@txGreg: Consider it retired from this poster....That's a Hot Wookie

@Stilton: 50 marines, while still a force to be reconned with, is basically an un-reinforced company. Normally such events would be handled by a BLT (Battalion Landing Team), and failure is not a mission objective. (Company is an estimate - they may have restructured when they went to Expeditionary Units/Brigades).

I understand from some of Drudge's reporting, that at least one of the casualties was with the Marine embassy guard detachment, and despite comments of Obama that the 'Good Libyan Citizens' carried the ambassador to the hospital - the pictures look more like he was dragged at least from the building, if not through the streets.

I listened to the live feed from Romney's presser, and he was constantly asked about his foreign policy experience, and if he thought it was wise to 1) speak before the facts were known and 2) speak out when the President hadn't spoken yet. The put down was good, and he didn't even bring up "Yeah, Obama had a lot of Foreign Policy Experience - he could see Tony Rezko's house from his.

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@txGreg- I've got to admit that the picture leaves me conflicted.

@SeaDog- 50 Marines strikes me as being a gesture only, and a disappointing one. The world is watching.

Regarding whether it was "appropriate" for Romney to speak up, I've got to say that I think it's Obama's failure to speak up - for us or our allies - over the past 4 years that makes these disasters more likely to happen. And as you say, Obama had NO foreign policy experience when running for president, and his entire foreign policy strategy (then and now) is "America's enemies will like me, because I'm so goshdarn lovable." Every day Obama is in the Whitehouse, the world becomes a more dangerous place.

Bobo said...

A bumper sticker I read today:

'Who gives a shit about where Obama was born. It's where he lives now. THAT'S THE PROBLEM!'

Emmentaler Limburger said...

@Stilton: it was Gallup Holder the Weasel went after for offending the God-fodder. Rasmussen wisely lied and showed a 1% lead for Øbama to avoid litigation. Plus, I don't believe Rasmussen whored, er, I mean, "contracted" itself out to the feudal gummint as Gallup did...

And thanks. I'm thinking of trademarking "Statistricks" and "Statistricksters" and opening my own polling company...

alan markus said...

Speaking of DNC, Marines, and foreign policy issues, this has got to be mock-worthy of Obama:

Russian ships displayed at DNC tribute to vets

On the last night of the Democratic National Convention, a retired Navy four-star took the stage to pay tribute to veterans. Behind him, on a giant screen, the image of four hulking warships reinforced his patriotic message.

But there was a big mistake in the stirring backdrop: those are Russian warships.

I'm sure the brains behind the DNC probably will shrug their shoulders, "Russian, Smussian, what's the diff?"

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@Bobo- Truer words were never spoken.

@Emmentaler- Thanks for the Gallup correction; that's what I get for relying on my memory. And by all means start your own statistrickal polling company. Your slogan: "You didn't build that, but we can make it look like you did."

@Alan Markus- Yeah, who the heck can tell ships apart, right? I'm surprised they didn't also show some images of "our" missiles being paraded by "our" marching cossacks in Red Square. The whole fiasco reminds me of the recent embarrassment when the post office released a new "Forever" stamp with the Statue of Liberty on it. The only problem? They used a picture of a Statue of Liberty replica in Las Vegas.

alan markus said...

The whole fiasco reminds me of the recent embarrassment when the post office released a new "Forever" stamp with the Statue of Liberty on it. The only problem? They used a picture of a Statue of Liberty replica in Las Vegas.

So we have two examples of that old phrase about the quality of a finished product "close enough for government work".

John the Econ said...

@alan markus, the Democrats will never forgive Reagan for bankrupting the Soviet Union and winning the cold war.

SeaDog said...

The headlines should read "President Fiddles In Vegas While Embassies Burned/Americans Killed" - Fat Chance! I have two major questions - Why didn't the CIA have some intelligence that this was in the planning?; and why wasn't a Marine detachment from the embassy not with the Ambassador?

The SpecFor community has blasted President HopeyChangey for his drone campaign, that killing off every major player doesn't allow interrogation and perhaps (gasp) getting real time intelligence - but then, there would be hand-wringing on to use/not to use enhanced interrogation methods. Of course, Eric the Unjust would have to take time off from his frivolous lawsuits against everything and anybody that dares to question Obama and his administrative incompetence to read the terrorists their rights, and give them a referral to his old law firm.

Marine Embassy units are highly trained professionals dedicated to the safety of the Ambassador, the Embassy, and it's personnel. The State Department has hobbled these units with their PC doctrine, seeing them as no better than mall cops, and being a visible affront to their "Why Can't We All Just Get Along" diplomacy. When will they learn that there are truly Evil people in this world, and they want to kill you and your children just because of your faith. Islam is a peaceful religion, just agree with us or we will kill you.

Emmentaler Limburger said...

@Seadog: Because it is most difficult to recognize that which you see in the mirror...

REM1875 said...

Those were the democrats ships just not our ships. Democrats need to be over sampled in polls to account for the dead, illegal aliens, multiple votes and the acorn generated votes, if the Republicans were not so closed minded they would start buying votes ah I mean courting the votes of these important demographics. Obumbler gave a stern warning to the embassy murders and rioters and to the media and his line of thinking these savages are probably hanging their heads in shame now that they are aware they did wrong. It's not like the are conservative Americans who we need to unleash the real forces of the US govt against.

John the Econ said...

So the Fed is going ahead with QE3 to stimulate more jobs. Gosh, and I thought the Obamanomics was doing so well and the private economy was doing just fine. So why does the Fed feel the need to go ahead and subsidize more Federal deficit spending by cheapening our dollars by printing even more?

Those commercials by all those financial planning firms are now starting to look even more like shrill fantasy than ever before. No, Mr. & Mrs. Middle-class; you aren't going to be spending your retirement years running a vineyard, living at a country club or owning a horse farm. Nope. Those dollars you've been investing and saving for your retirement dreams are going to be worthless long before you get anywhere near retirement age. And no amount of clever financial management or strategies can compete with a Federal government that seems content to spend over a third more that its taking in indefinitely. There's no line you can follow to escape it. And even if you somehow manage to hit your target of a "gazillion" dollars, I fully expect the Federal government to be there to seize most of it in the name of "fairness" to those who didn't even bother to try.

No, your future will be about trying to make your money last as you spend your "golden" years in waiting rooms when you're not in your one-room apartment. Perhaps you all should go and rent a copy of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ( for a glimpse of what your golden years are going to be like.

Although it's great comedy as a movie, I seriously doubt that living it for real will be anywhere as pleasurable.

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@alan markus- If only there were just two examples of "close enough for government work" instead of, oh, 16 trillion.

@SeaDog- Anyone with an IQ higher than that of a rutabaga would have increased security dramatically in the world's hotspots on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. So why didn't it happen? Might it be that the act of ramping up security would itself be seen as an act of incitement against the world's most easily-offended religion?

Whatever the thought process was, it was an abysmal failure. Assuming that what is happening in the Middle East would be considered failure by this administration.

@REM1875- When Obama finally took the microphone to condemn the brutal killings in Libya, his words were perfunctory and passionless - quite different from his emotional outrage when condemning (unfairly) white police officers for systemic racism (following the arrest of the belligerent and foul-mouthed Professor Henry Gates). Personally, I thing that Obama believes the Tea Party to be a much greater threat to his world vision than the Muslim Brotherhood.

@John the Econ- The announcement of QE3, on top of all the tumult in the world, gave me one of those moments in which I didn't know whether to (how best to put this?) forcibly excrete or become visually impaired. I've worked a lifetime to try to put away some retirement savings, and they're being stolen right out from under me because Washington can't give up on the sweet, fatal heroin addiction of unbridled government spending. The rat bastards.

SeaDog said...

In regards to my previous post, the State Dept is treating these highly trained Marines as Barney Fife:

alan markus said...

Obama alone: This president does not need intel briefers

The president was scheduled to hold the intelligence meeting at 10:50 a.m. Wednesday, the day after the attacks, but it was canceled so that he could comfort grieving employees at the State Department — as well he should. But instead of rescheduling the intelligence briefing for later in the day, Obama apparently chose to skip it altogether and attend a Las Vegas fundraiser for his re-election campaign. One day after a terrorist attack.!

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@SeaDog- The fact that the marines were not allowed to carry live rounds is the latest proof that Barack Obama doesn't give a rat's ass if our troops live or die. No marine should ever be put in harm's way with less lethal force than the Secret Service carries when protecting Barack Obama's entirely underserving rear end.

@Alan Markus- Obama did not need to comfort grieving employees at the State Department, he needed an (expletive here) PHOTO OP with the grieving employees - which is why they had to stand outside in the sun to meet with him before he was whisked off on his latest fundraising junket. Meanwhile, the fact that American soil had been invaded and Americans murdered meant nothing to him - certainly not enough to interest him in preventing more such attacks and deaths.

Pete(Detroit) said...

Stilt, others w/ pressure issues, take a pill, a fresh cup of 'coffee', or something - this will send your head into orbit...

Drudge report links to UK Independent story that State Dept had 48 hr warning of riots, and did NOTHING

It would be utterly unbelievable, except that it *is*...

Stilton Jarlsberg said...

@Pete(Detroit)- I'd already seen the story, and yes it did send my head (or more accurately my blood pressure) into orbit.

The State Department knew the attacks were likely coming but didn't send out warnings and didn't beef up security on 9/11. Because, you know, the "optics" would make it look like we don't trust homicidal religious fanatics.

And so American soil (embassies) were invaded, and Americans were killed - all to help Barack Hussein Obama preserve his precious myth that Islam is not only peace-loving and civilized, but that it is the best religion on Earth (it's certainly the only one for which shown any believable affection).

We need to get some answers from our Secretary of State about why she allowed State Department personnel to be martyred in the name of Obama's reelection. After all, she was the one who stood on the Senate floor after 9/11 and held up a newspaper headlined "BUSH KNEW!"

John the Econ said...

Or perhaps this astroturf attack was just what was ordered to get the national attention off of the economy.